CABOT-DPRI First Workshop, DPRI, Kyoto Univ. Uji, Japan
(2012/05/17-19)
On the Kakushin and Sosei Programs
Eiichi Nakakita
Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto
University
Kyoto University
2
Ⓒ Kyoto University
Kyoto University
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Established in 1897
Number of Faculty
Non-teaching staff
Number of Students
Undergraduate
 Graduate

2,858
2,556
13,473
9,314
• International Students 1,563
3
• 10 Faculties
• 17 Graduate Schools
• 42 Research Institute
and Centers
• President
Dr. Hiroshi
Matsumoto
3
Top-Class Research
• Many winners of international awards
– Seven Nobel Prize Laureates
Dr. Hideki Yukawa
Physics 1949
Dr. Ryoji Noyori
Chemistry 2001
Dr Sin-Itiro Tomonaga
Physics 1965
Dr. Makoto Kobayashi
Physics 2008
4
Dr. Kenichi Fukui
Chemistry 1981
Dr. Susumu Tonegawa
Physiology or
Medicine 1987
Dr. Toshihide Maskawa
Physics 2008
– Two Fields Medal Winners
Dr. Heisuke Hironaka
1970
Dr. Shigefumi Mori
1990
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DPRI
Disaster Prevention Research Institute
Kyoto University
DPRI, Kyoto University
• Established in 1951 (Kyoto Univ. in 1897)
• 4 Research Groups
- Integrated Arts and Science for Disaster Reduction
- Seismic and Volcanic Hazards Mitigation
- Geohazards
- Atmosphere-Hydrosphere
• 5 Research Divisions, 6 Research Centers
• 34 Professors, 38 Associate Professors, and
34 Assistant Professors + 10 Visiting Professors
• 192 Graduate Students (70 DC + 122 MC) and
42 Undergrads [as of June 2006]
• Open to many other Japanese institutes
• More than 20 MoU’s with research organizations abroad
Research division and center
- Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University
- International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk Management (ICHARM),
Public Work Research Institute (PWRI)
Points in climate change assessment
on Japanese hazard
• There are various types of hazards
that bring disasters.
• Spacio-temporal information with high
resolution is required for representing
reasonable river discharge in Japan.
Features of Japanese River(1)
• Short length and steep slope.
Height from sea level (m)
The Rhine R.
Jyoganji R.
Shinano R.
Colorado R.
Tone River
The Seine river
Kitakami R.
Mekong R.
Distance from river mouth (km)
Features of Japanese River(2)
• Large peak discharge, short duration
Tone River
Shinano R.
Mississippi R.
The Rhine R.
Chikugo R.
Duration (day)
Tennessee R.
Projected typhoon by GCM20
It is the typhoon resolving output from GCM20 that has
realized the impact assessment on Japanese river regime
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Spacio-temporal scale
Typhoon
Range:1000km
Duration:1day to a few days
大河川での洪水、大規模水害、土砂災害
2009/08/08 in台湾
Projected by AGCM20
気象庁HP
台湾中央気象局、台湾国家災害防救科技中心
Localized heavy rainfall (Baiu season)
Range:100km
Duration:6 hours to half a day
Shower
Range:10 km
Duration:about half an hour
中・小河川での洪水、内水氾濫、土砂災害
2010/10/20 in奄美
小河川や下水道内での鉄砲水、都市内水氾濫
2008/07/28 at都賀川
2008/08/05 at雑司ヶ谷
Projected by RCM
南日本新聞 OFFICIAL SITE
Impossible?
都賀川モニタリング映像
共同通信
Rainfall output from GCM and RCM
• GCM20 (Hourly rainfall, Globe)
– Extreme rainfall and Ocean wave in the world
– Major and all Japanese rivers basins
• RCM5 and RCM2 (30 minutes, Around Japanese
Archipelago)
– Inundation in major metropolitan areas
– Land slide, debris flow
– Major Japanese river basins
• RCM1 (10 minutes rainfall, Piecewise sections in
Japanese Archipelago)
– Inundation in major metropolitan arears
– Land slide and debris flow
– Strong wind hazard
Prediction and evaluation of disaster environment in Japan
DPRI / Kyoto-Univ.
Slope
Output
from GCM
and RCM
Interpretation of
output
Habitable Area
Coastal Area
Hourly precipitation, temperature, water vapor, wind velocity, radiation and air pressure
(25-years time series (20km) and ensemble predictions (60km) for current, near future and century end)
Regional climate model (RCM_5km, RCM_2km, RCM_1km)
Stochastic
typhoon model
Surface hydrological model
Probability density function of extreme value(depending on spacio-temporal scales)
Stochastic precipitation model (time series depending on spacio-temporal scales)
Soil production
Rainfall runoff
Sedimentation and
transportation of soil
River channel flow
Storm surge
Soil runoff
Reservoir operation
Building damage by strong wind
Evaluation
River
Inundation including
underground shopping
mole
Various
Models
(with
long-term
run)
Mountains
Decreasing of safety against landslide, debris flow, flood, draught, storm surge and strong wind .
Assessment of current protection system and proposal of alternatives
Sosei (創生) Program (2012-2016)
Situation of output fromUltimate Goal
Climate models
Post Sosei
Sosei
Kakushin
Topics:
Natural hazard, Water Resources
and Ecosystem and Eco-service
For adaptation decision making
Deterministic, Probabilistic and Beyond
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On the Kakushin and Sosei Programs