International Seminar on Food System Development and Food Culture
by Korea FAO Association and Global Agriculture Policy Institute
Jeonju City, Korea
Weakening Demand for Rice in Asia
and Food Education Law of Japan
--Can We Change the Trend? -Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.
Takashi Kubo
Tomohiro Kuwabara
Faculty of Agriculture, Kyushu University, Japan
http://worldfood.apionet.or.ac.jp
October 30, 2007
1
プレゼンの構成
Today’s Contents
1. アジアのコメ消費減退
Weakening Demand for Rice in Asia
2. 国際作物間競争
Global/Regional crop competition
3. 日本の食育基本法と活動
Food Education Law and Activities
2
Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan, South
Korea and China during 1961 - 2007
日本、台湾、韓国、中国における一人当たりコメの消費量の変化
(Kg)
200
Milled basis
Japan
T aiwan
South Korea
China
160
120
80
40
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.apionet.or.jp)
Original data sources: USDA: PSD Online , August 2007; USBC: International Data Base, August 2006.
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
3
中国における一人当たりコメの消費量の変化
Fig.2. Per capita consumption of rice for China during 1970 - 2007
Milled basis
(Kg)
-0.331%
115
Per Year
110
105
100
95
90
-2.15%
85
Per Year
SSource: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.apionet.or.jp)
Original data sources: USDA: PSD Online , August 2007; USBC: International Data Base, August 2006.
4
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
80
インドにおける一人当たりコメの消費量の変化
(Kg)
Fig.3. Per capita consumption of rice for India during 1970 - 2007
Milled basis
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.apionet.or.jp)
Original data sources: USDA: PSD Online , August 2007; USBC: International Data Base, August 2006.
5
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
60
コメ消費減退の原因は・・・
Why rice consumption decreasing?
6
Fig.4 Per capita pork consumption in Japan, S. Korea, China, and Thailand(1961-2007)
日本、台湾、韓国、中国、タイにおける豚肉の一人当たり消費量の変化
(kg/capita)
50
45
40
Japan
China
Taiwan
S.Korea
Thailand
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
0
Source:USDA: PSD Online, August 2007.
伊東研究室ホームページ(九州大学):世界の食料統計(http://worldfood.apionet.or.jp/graph/index.html),2007 年9月.
7
Reasons for Declining Demand for Rice !!
コメ需要減退の原因
1.
経済発展と食生活の多様化
Diversified Diet with Economic Growth
2. 少ないコメの加工食利用
Little usage for processed food!!
3. 少ないコメのエサ利用
Little usage for feeding!!
4. 少ないコメのエタノール・燃料利用
Little usage for bio-fuel!!
8
Fig. 16. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘06
百万トン、 (Million MT)
世界におけるコメ、コムギ、コーン、ダイズの生産量, ’61-‘07
900
Riceコメ
Wheatコムギ
Cornコーン
Soybeanダイズ
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
2007
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
1977
1975
1973
1971
1969
1967
1965
1963
1961
0
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http://worldfood.apionet.or.jp), Kyushu University, Japan September, 2007.
(Original sources are from ERS/USDA; PSD Online , August 2007). Note: Rice is milled basis.
9
Rice Crisis coming from
Weakening Demand
消費減退から来る危機…..
Losing the competition
among the crops….
競争に負けていく!!!
10
Wheat
Europe & N-America
Rice
Asia
国際作物間競争
Global Crop Competition!
11
Simulation for Global rice
consumption
世界のコメ消費予測
12
Projections with 3 scenarios for World per capita rice consumption, 1960-2050
kg/capita
世界における一人当たりコメ消費量の2050年予測(3つのシナリオ)
80.0
60.0
40.0
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
20.0
Average rate formula: Xt+n = (1 + r)nQt
13
2047
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
0.0
2050
Source: Abdullah, Ito and Adhana, 2006
3 scenarios for World total rice consumption, 1960-2050
世界におけるコメ総消費量の2050年予測(3つのシナリオ)
百万トン, Million mt
600.0
516mmt
IRRI 13% up > S2
(IRRI)
500.0
400.0
Scenario 1
300.0
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
200.0
100.0
Source: Abdullah, Ito and Adhana, 2006
2050
2047
14
2044
2041
2038
2035
2032
2029
2026
2023
2020
2017
2014
2011
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
1969
1966
1963
1960
0.0
Food Education Law
Food Education Programs
Cabinet Office
Min. of Health,
Labor & Welfare
Min. of Education
Min. of Agriculture
15
Food Education Law of 2005
(Shokuiku Basic Law)
• 1. Health in body and mind
• 2. Understanding of diets, nature, people
related to food
• 3. Nationwide voluntary actions developed
• 4. Adults for children in food education
• 5. Learning diets at schools, communities
by conducting events and activities
• 6. Awareness of traditional Japanese food
culture, supply/demand, rural farming
16
• 7. Food safety and proper diets
Table 1. Government budget for Food Education programs at each ministry.
Ministries
Million
yen
2005
2006
2007
0
176
183
122
135
119
Ministry of Education, Culture Sports and Technology
788
1,258
1,576
Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare
497
697
722
3,886
6,600
8,761
5,293
8,866 11,361
Office for Promotion of Food
Cabinet Office, Government of Ed.
Food Safety Commission
Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and fisheries
Total
17
Million yen
Fig.6 Total governmant budget for Food Education
12000
11361
10000
8000
8866
6000
4000
5293
2000
0
2005
2006
2007
18
Million
yen
Table 3. Budget for Food Education at the Ministry of Education, Culture,
2005
2006
2007
0
0
11
0
120
120
0
0
0
71
0
20
72
13
14
143
128
128
5
Development of Advanced Nutrition Education programs
Nutritionists-initiated Food Education promotion programs
with schools, families, and local communities
Locally produced food for school lunch
Survey on sanitary at school lunch kitchen
Symposium for Food Education
6
Providing information and texts for learning diets
7
Classes for nutritionists
0
69
69
8
Survey on contemporary life style and health of kids
0
38
24
9
Promotion of enriched life style
396
470
713
10
Improvement of kids’ life style
0
130
242
11
Providing handbooks on parenting on diet
249
213
170
788
1,259
19
1,576
1
2
3
4
Total
Table 5. Budget for Food Education at the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and
Fisheries
Promotion of ricebased traditional
balanced diet at
production,
marketing and
consumption
2005
2006
2007
588
3,945
3,815
2 Regionally unique balance diet
0
0
0
Promotion of experiences at
agriculture, forestry and fishery
210
163
980
0
12
794
921
27
167
2,167
2,453
3,006
3,886
6,600
1
1
Nation-wide promotion for Food
Education
Promotion of locally produced and
locally consumed
Collection of various information
3
on diet
Reduction of food waist and
4 promotion of recycling food
products
2
Other programs for
Food Education
Million
yen
Total
8,762
20
Food Education and Local Food Local
Consumption Activities in Kagoshima,
Kyushu
食育・地産地消の立場から
Kagoshima Province Office
鹿児島県 農政課
Suzumi Iwashige
岩重鈴美
Activities on Food Education 食育・地産地消の取組
農林水産業の体験
旬を美味しく味わう体験
伝統的な食文化に触れる機会の提供
地元産の良さを実感
Children at farms
農業者等の経験と知恵を活かした体験学習の支援
• Deveopment of love for life, culture, and food
through agriculture農業者等の協力により,作物の栽培を通じた農産物
の生産過程の理解や調理などの体験を通じた命の教育や食の大切さの理解促進と意
識の醸成
School activities of agriculture, forestry,
and fisheries in Kagoshima 2007
小中学校における農林漁業体験学習の
実施状況(H18実績)
区
分
Total #
学校数
Experience
体験学習
実施校数
Rate of exp.
体験学習
実施率(%)
Elem.
小学校
Midd.
中学校
592
584
98.6
78.5
265
227
85.7
32.9
Total計
857
811
94.6
-
National average
全国平均実施率
(%)
資料:鹿児島県 農政課・林業振興課・水産振興課, 教育庁義務教育課 調べ
全国平均実施率:全国農村青少年教育振興会調べ
Class by nutritionist
栄養教諭による食に関する指導
地域の食材の理解や郷土の味を伝える工夫に努めている
栄養教諭(144名)を配置し,食育の充実を図っている
Rate of local food supplied at school lunch, 2006,%
学校給食における地域の食材使用
県産農林水産物の使用状況(H18年実績)
使用割合(%)
(重量ベース)
Meat
肉類
Fish
魚介類
Eggs
卵類
Pot.
Vegeい
も・野菜
85.4
71.2
80.7 59.6
Fruits Other
果実類 その他
Total
計
63.6 61.9 65.5
注:その他とは,豆類,豆製品,藻類,キノコ類等をさす。
米,牛乳・・・100%
Number of organizations to supply food to schools食材を供給する生産組織等の推移
2002
13年度
# of Org.
組織等数
20
2003
14年度
2003
15年度
2004
16年度
2005
17年度
33
37
48
49
2006
18年度
56
School lunch with farmers
学校給食を通じた食育の推進
• Direct real communication, real education
「鹿
児島をまるごと味わう学校給食」や生産者と子どもが交流する「ふれあい給食」な
ど,給食は生きた「食育」の教材となっている
生産者との
ふれあい給食
Children’s ag. Experiences
農業体験等を通じた農村の多目的機能の発揮
• 棚田を活用した農業体験等により農地を保全
する取組
Green-tourism and Rural Food Cooking
農家民宿での農業・郷土料理等の体験受入
グリーンツーリズム関連団体と農家と
の連携による修学旅行生受入も多数
Farm restaurants with local food
地域の食材を活用している農村レストラン
海外援助における日本及び韓国ODAの役割
Roles of Korea, Japan’s ODA programs
アジア版 for Asia
1.Development of Tech & Demand
あらゆるコメ技術と需要の開発
2. Promotion of Asian Rice/Food Culture!!
コメ文化サポートのための援助
3. Conversion from Rice to other crops!!
稲作転換のための技術援助
4. Food Security with Rice within Asia!!
コメ・アジア農業の国際競争力強化
31
Thanks!
32
33
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Food Education Law - Kyushu University, Faculty of Agriculture